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How Committed is Your State to ‘Drinking Local’?

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By now it’s probably no surprise: people love to drink at brewery taprooms.

The opportunity to get fresh, from-the-source beer is always a big draw, but there’s certainly an additional layer of excitement about visiting the physical space itself. It’s a deeper connection to the liquid in the glass.

In many places, it’s also simply part of the drinking culture.

Recently, the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) released a new set of statistics related to beer: the aggregated data of sales state-by-state. The information includes numbers from 2010 to 2015, highlighting the breakdown of sales related to bottles and cans, barrels and kegs and “premise use,” the stuff that’s sold on-site and tracked by the TTB. This particularly relates to the “rise of own-premise” business models I wrote about for Good Beer Hunting.

Because of the qualitative and quantitative evidence that consistently appears related to greater customer interest in on-site drinking, I wanted to see if parsing the numbers might offer any new insight into how things look on a state-by-state basis.

Programming note: because of quirky interpretations of policies, business practices and state law, numbers reported to the TTB may not always be 100 percent, guaranteed accurate. In conversation with Bart Watson, the Brewers Association’s economist, he pointed out to me that reported premise use numbers are likely lower than reality. All the same, I’m taking the figures at face value for purposes of this post because it’s the data presented.

Cultural Impact

It’s impossible to deny that in several states, the act of going straight to the source for beer has become part of the culture for local residents. We often hear about people living in San Diego, for instance, taking advantage of the more than 100 beer-making businesses in the county alone. To put actual numbers to this, I pulled the information for states we may most closely associate with this behavior, using Brewers Association-defined craft breweries..

For example, here’s the data from California:

2014 2015 Percent Growth
No. of breweries 431 518 20%
Own-premise barrels sold 66,582.57 121,961.79 83%

Perhaps it should come as no surprise that Golden State drinkers keep California as the top premise-use sales state in the country, a number that is certain to grow as it surpassed 700 total in-state breweries this past summer.

But what’s really interesting is California’s comparison to another beer-loving state. Despite having roughly half the number of breweries in 2015, Colorado had nearly identical on-site sales:

2014 2015 Percent Growth
No. of breweries 235 284 21%
Own-premise barrels sold 75,759.99 120,964.79 60%

Maybe it’s all those biking trails that lead straight to breweries?

Those state figures may not come as anything new, but what really interested me were states that might also attract a large number of tourists. In a previous post, I highlighted the very real financial impact of beer tourism, which is most definitely felt in states like Oregon:

In the most recent (2014) survey by Travel Portland, a tourism office for the Oregon city, results showed that 11 percent of US adults visited Portland for a leisure trip in 2013 or 2014 … Among those who visited, 68 percent participated in some beer-related experience.

Despite just a 5.5 percent growth in number of breweries from 2014 to 2015, own-premise sales more than doubled:

2014 2015 Percent Growth
No. of breweries 216 228 5.50%
Own-premise barrels sold 35,542.33 86,834.95 144%

You can also find this kind of drastic contrast in Vermont, land of Hill Farmstead and Heady Topper:

2014 2015 Percent Growth
No. of breweries 40 44 10%
Own-premise barrels sold 2,786.29 10,846.17 289%

And to a lesser extent, Washington:

Washington 2014 2015 Percent Growth
No. of breweries 256 305 19%
Own-premise barrels sold 18,363.50 43,219.71 135%

A common denominator for all these states would certainly be their unique beer cultures, which are deep and ingrained in each state’s connection to food, beverage and “what’s local.” Some of these brewery numbers are so large, the percentage growth remains relatively low, but there’s no denying how impressive the actual sale of pints looks.

Programming note: Because some of the jumps in on-site sales seem drastic from 2014 to 2015, I emailed the TTB to ask if any reporting or data collection changed. If I hear back, I will update this post with that info.

Growing Interest

While some states have always had great interest in their own beer scene, it’s easy to see that kind of attention spreading to other areas across the country. The number of breweries is growing everywhere and with it, the number of people checking out these new additions to their community.

To better understand this change, I tracked the top-15 states for on-site sales based on numbers reported to the TTB. Using all six years of data offered by the organization, here’s what a year-to-year chart looks like, highlighting the up-and-down shift of states. Note the key of this chart, which uses red to indicate a year-to-year drop, yellow to show an increased rank, but one for a state already on the list, and blue to show a new appearance in the top 15:


Obvious note on the quirkiness of reporting, as mentioned above, as Illinois somehow took over the top spot from California and Colorado solely for 2014. I have a note in with the TTB communications staff to help clarify this instance.

Aside from that, I’d like to draw your attention to the column for 2015, where we see four new states appear in the top-15. This is an important aspect to recognize, as it clearly helps illustrate the new brewery and beer cultures expanding in states like Texas, Florida and others.

Adding Capacity

To help reinforce this idea, I pulled two collections of states to focus on the increased number of breweries, as reported to the Brewers Association, and the total barrels sold on-site at breweries.

From 2014 to 2015, here are some of the top states in terms of percentage growth of breweries, according to numbers collected by the Brewers Association:

State 2014 Breweries 2015 Breweries Percentage Growth
Texas 117 189 61.5%
New Jersey 32 51 59%
North Carolina 101 161 59%
Virginia 78 124 59%
Maryland 40 60 50%
Indiana 80 115 44%
Minnesota 73 105 44%
Arizona 53 78 40%
Florida 111 151 36%
Tennessee 39 52 33%
Michigan 159 205 31%
Pennsylvania 136 178 31%
Ohio 110 143 30%
Iowa 46 58 26%
Wisconsin 97 121 25%

Additionally, here are the same states with percentage growth of own-premise barrels sold, using figures from the TTB:

State 2014 Barrels Sold 2015 Barrels Sold  Percentage Growth
Texas 9,848.20 62,622.83 536%
Florida 7,140.24 35,277.93 394%
Iowa 5,775.54 17,917.21 210%
New Jersey 6,060.97 18,359.01 203%
Minnesota 12,806.87 35,898.89 180%
North Carolina 18,424.66 51,543.68 180%
Virginia 12,526.11 32,092.47 156%
Maryland 7,541.10 17,543.58 132%
Ohio 13,732.61 31,530.96 130%
Tennessee 9,264.57 20,735.79 124%
Indiana 16,300.90 32,287.43 98%
Wisconsin 17,984.10 35,039.17 95%
California 66,582.57 121,961.79 83%
Michigan 32,038.96 56,749.17 77%
Arizona 17,667.95 29,762.28 68%

For fun, a look at those two lists side-by-side:

Brewery Growth Barrels Sold Growth
Texas Texas
New Jersey Florida
North Carolina Iowa
Virginia New Jersey
Maryland Minnesota
Indiana North Carolina
Minnesota Virginia
Arizona Maryland
Florida Ohio
Tennessee Tennessee
Michigan Indiana
Pennsylvania Wisconsin
Ohio California
Iowa Michigan
Wisconsin Arizona

The key here is to better identify the places that are making the jump toward where long-tenured beer loving states may be. In the past couple years, Texas has certainly been a state to keep an eye on and these stats certainly emphasize that. As you go down the list, consider the states shown with new, hot breweries you’ve heard about.

The Pacific Northwest and West Coast have long been known as big beer places, but this collection of states helps to show why so many people are talking about just about every region of the country as something to offer. New breweries are doing some pretty great things, which is attracting plenty of people to not only open and expand these beer communities, but bringing beer lovers to the source. A lot of this has to do with growing interest, but it certainly also deals with modernizing laws in many of these states that for a long time impeded aspects of industry growth.

In the end, that final note will continue to play a pivotal role in how these kinds of stats grow and change in the years to come.

The Full List

In case you were interested in finding the data for certain states, the full list is pasted below. Note that the number of breweries per state, as shared on the Brewers Association website state-by-state, goes back five years. The TTB data goes back to 2010. In some cases, like Mississippi, data for a year may be missing.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
No. of breweries 6 10 13 19 24
Own-premise barrels sold 0.00 0.00 0.00 130.55 226.25 5,760.63
No. of breweries 20 22 22 22 27
Own-premise barrels sold 1,666.84 1,994.17 2,007.52 2,556.31 2,656.27 5,049.98
No. of breweries 34 45 47 53 78
Own-premise barrels sold 14,982.81 16,668.08 14,427.63 18,562.39 17,667.95 29,762.28
No. of breweries 6 10 13 19 26
Own-premise barrels sold 518.25 535.25 524.00 558.14 776.12 1,319.67
No. of breweries 270 319 381 431 518
Own-premise barrels sold 29,464.37 38,249.35 27,645.89 62,653.99 66,582.57 121,961.79
No. of breweries 126 151 175 235 284
Own-premise barrels sold 39,224.46 50,434.80 43,769.12 61,841.82 75,759.99 120,964.79
No. of breweries 16 21 23 27 35
Own-premise barrels sold 695.72 1,006.90 471.10 2,411.30 2,076.35 13,478.12
No. of breweries 7 9 10 11 15
Own-premise barrels sold 0.00 569.00 0.00 3,051.08 3,089.73 5,981.02
No. of breweries 45 57 66 111 151
Own-premise barrels sold 5,072.64 4,679.22 3,189.01 6,370.49 7,140.24 35,277.93
No. of breweries 21 22 28 40 45
Own-premise barrels sold 2,121.72 2,489.06 1,853.20 4,658.16 4,435.57 17,961.44
No. of breweries 7 9 8 10 13
Own-premise barrels sold 1,329.75 1,367.08 1,134.11 1,972.63 1,380.60 4,234.55
No. of breweries 24 31 34 43 50
Own-premise barrels sold 3,783.23 4,994.57 4,354.86 6,006.63 4,573.66 13,792.75
No. of breweries 54 68 83 103 157
Own-premise barrels sold 12,011.12 15,552.91 14,890.69 25,269.76 91,945.35 44,535.02
No. of breweries 46 55 63 80 115
Own-premise barrels sold 6,072.24 9,611.42 8,564.63 15,006.35 16,300.90 32,287.43
No. of breweries 27 34 40 46 58
Own-premise barrels sold 3,316.93 4,356.60 3,593.09 6,175.74 5,775.54 17,917.21
No. of breweries 17 19 20 22 26
Own-premise barrels sold 3,461.57 4,906.29 3,403.46 7,451.96 7,579.47 6,540.63
No. of breweries 11 14 15 18 24
Own-premise barrels sold 279.60 1,277.50 749.81 6,465.48 6,234.52 7,190.18
No. of breweries 8 8 11 15 20
Own-premise barrels sold 1,775.20 1,536.07 1,606.10 1,723.51 1,579.10 5,933.60
No. of breweries 34 37 47 52 59
Own-premise barrels sold 2,980.25 3,754.47 3,814.16 8,036.58 7,936.21 14,797.04
No. of breweries 25 31 34 40 60
Own-premise barrels sold 7,145.62 6,929.68 5,586.80 7,771.25 7,541.10 17,543.58
No. of breweries 45 49 57 61 84
Own-premise barrels sold 9,881.01 8,377.22 7,691.57 12,570.98 10,352.66 15,277.04
No. of breweries 105 122 131 159 205
Own-premise barrels sold 12,998.13 14,199.86 11,527.15 28,569.48 32,038.96 56,749.17
No. of breweries 35 47 52 73 105
Own-premise barrels sold 1,715.22 3,058.91 1,238.71 11,110.35 12,806.87 35,898.89
No. of breweries 2 3 4 7 8
Own-premise barrels sold 0.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 6,294.62
No. of breweries 43 45 49 55 71
Own-premise barrels sold 8,431.39 10,596.85 10,804.23 13,003.37 13,743.88 18,183.66
No. of breweries 33 36 39 44 49
Own-premise barrels sold 2,708.02 3,042.40 3,236.79 4,373.97 6,203.14 26,374.60
No. of breweries 18 19 22 32 33
Own-premise barrels sold 3,020.29 2,083.32 1,132.00 6,449.30 3,657.26 6,412.13
No. of breweries 18 22 22 25 34
Own-premise barrels sold 12,111.63 14,930.03 14,025.70 14,187.08 16,234.04 21,479.94
New Hampshire
No. of breweries 15 19 22 26 44
Own-premise barrels sold 4,698.22 5,352.00 5,653.58 6,072.36 6,381.32 8,636.34
New Jersey
No. of breweries 24 25 26 32 51
Own-premise barrels sold 2,120.18 2,293.27 905.64 5,280.34 6,060.97 18,359.01
New Mexico
No. of breweries 25 28 31 36 45
Own-premise barrels sold 8,436.52 8,424.92 6,140.71 13,997.52 13,976.38 13,352.96
New York
No. of breweries 75 92 165 181 208
Own-premise barrels sold 8,095.67 10,455.01 7,839.08 25,407.21 39,154.22 44,669.50
North Carolina
No. of breweries 59 71 91 101 161
Own-premise barrels sold 11,792.64 12,674.72 12,987.41 22,091.10 18,424.66 51,543.68
North Dakota
No. of breweries 2 4 6 6 9
Own-premise barrels sold 0.00 132.00 47.98 1,376.15 1,350.78 2,325.95
No. of breweries 45 58 76 110 143
Own-premise barrels sold 7,220.57 8,084.49 8,244.44 11,927.23 13,732.61 31,530.96
No. of breweries 10 10 13 10 14
Own-premise barrels sold 1,575.34 1,753.78 937.96 2,381.47 2,459.74 9,950.59
No. of breweries 124 145 181 216 228
Own-premise barrels sold 23,123.20 28,137.03 29,193.32 38,267.28 35,542.33 86,834.95
No. of breweries 88 104 108 136 178
Own-premise barrels sold 13,405.80 20,844.85 17,818.02 32,031.70 30,646.77 41,040.29
Rhode Island
No. of breweries 6 8 8 11 14
Own-premise barrels sold 787.84 902.50 716.47 830.80 987.13 974.43
South Carolina
No. of breweries 16 16 20 31 36
Own-premise barrels sold 2,001.43 1,708.77 652.55 2,738.72 3,184.64 9,666.53
South Dakota
No. of breweries 5 7 10 12 14
Own-premise barrels sold 253.50 165.00 0.00 913.96 1,433.02 1,802.72
No. of breweries 24 30 35 39 52
Own-premise barrels sold 9,010.41 5,529.06 4,987.68 10,180.52 9,264.57 20,735.79
No. of breweries 59 84 96 117 189
Own-premise barrels sold 4,914.36 5,396.15 2,356.02 9,709.23 9,848.20 62,622.83
No. of breweries 16 16 16 20 22
Own-premise barrels sold 4,240.25 4,790.98 3,359.90 3,953.10 5,875.72 4,001.39
No. of breweries 22 27 29 40 44
Own-premise barrels sold 2,431.46 2,267.61 1,183.31 2,606.85 2,786.29 10,846.17
No. of breweries 40 50 61 78 124
Own-premise barrels sold 8,866.98 9,306.00 7,561.59 12,460.13 12,526.11 32,092.47
No. of breweries 136 170 201 256 305
Own-premise barrels sold 13,847.68 15,650.91 14,729.64 17,833.16 18,363.50 43,219.71
Washington DC
No. of breweries 6 6 9 8 10
Own-premise barrels sold 3,574.26 1,676.75 1,572.75 2,250.90 4,630.30 7,860.31
West Virginia
No. of breweries 5 6 7 11 12
Own-premise barrels sold 0.00 0.00 8.10 422.15 420.50 3,759.35
No. of breweries 73 84 90 97 121
Own-premise barrels sold 6,506.06 10,881.64 8,332.10 19,023.34 17,984.10 35,039.17
No. of breweries 13 15 18 22 23
Own-premise barrels sold 2,551.51 2,993.18 3,266.23 3,740.07 3,305.07 4,710.50


Bryan Roth
“Don’t drink to get drunk. Drink to enjoy life.” — Jack Kerouac

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Another enjoyable (and enlightening) article from @BryanDRoth #ncbeer
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How Big Craft Breweries Are Keeping Share of Mind – and Pint Glass

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Back in December 2015, I wrote about an important pivot “legacy” breweries were being forced to make as the beer market continued to diversify, led by many of the smaller and more agile breweries.

Examples like Dogfish Head, Founders and Highland – an NC brewery with Mid-Atlantic footprint – were all businesses that had been around for a while. Looking at their 2016 production schedules, something seemed clear: they were trying to find more ways to keep attention on their brands. That meant new products, new packaging and a new pattern of beer releases to keep things fresh and interesting for drinkers.

“In any industry, businesses run the risk of falling behind if they don’t innovate and experiment,” I wrote. “Considering the incredible growth in beer over the last few years, this feels doubly so.”

If anything, what we’ve seen since that initial post has only reinforced this necessary action for long-tenured breweries. No surprise, they’re the ones big enough to heavily influence the supermarket numbers mentioned above in Kate’s tweet.

In some ways, 2016 has been very kind to breweries like New Belgium, Sierra Nevada and Sam Adams, but there’s always another side to the story.

The nation’s top two craft brewers, Boston Beer and Sierra Nevada, “are now both in decline” and “combined volumes for the top 12 craft brewers grew only 1% for the three months to May,” Sanford C. Bernstein stated this week citing Nielsen figures in a report titled “The Dramatic Slowdown of Craft Beer Continues.”

Ouch. Some harsh words in an Ad Age post titled “Is the Craft Beer Boom Ending?

The answer is most decidedly “no,” but that doesn’t mean things aren’t perfect for some of the country’s biggest craft breweries. What it does mean is that these businesses increasingly find themselves in a position where they’ll need to bring new products to market to keep up with other breweries and stay fresh in the eyes on consumers.

Per IRI, 15 of the top 30 craft brands showed sales decline in the first half of 2016, including names we all recognize like Sierra Nevada Pale Ale, New Belgium Fat Tire and Samuel Adams Boston Lager. Six of those 15 brands have seen declines of 10 percent or more.

As we watch this slow fade, it’s hard not to think it may be because of the threat of flailing flagships or a simple cannibalization of “heritage” brands based on the success of new ones.

According to Beer Marketer’s Insights’ Craft Brew News, about 900 new craft brands have been half of craft beer dollar sales growth in IRI-tracked outlets through mid-August. Of that, 18 new craft beer brands surpassed the $1 million mark in sales, making up nearly half the sales for all new brands.

Where is most of that growth coming from? New, widely distributed brands from some of the biggest breweries:

  • New Belgium’s Citradelic and gluten-free beers
  • Sam Adams’ Rebel Grapefruit and nitro line
  • Sierra Nevada’s Otra Vez

(Also of note: Ballast Point Pineapple Sculpin is around $3 million in sales through mid-August and Watermelon Dorado, Mango Even Keel and Sculpin Variety Pack are about that combined.)

The success of these new brands is necessary to offset declines elsewhere in these breweries’ portfolios.

In the case of Sam Adams, where Boston Lager, Rebel IPA and their top-two seasonal SKUs account for 70 percent of volume, those brands have dropped $25.4 million year-to-date in sales. Otra Vez may be doing well for Sierra Nevada right now, but that’s been needed to buoy declines in just about any Sierra brand other than their seasonal and a few other new, 2016 brands, all numbers according to Craft Brew News.

It’s a good thing New Belgium has the $11.5 million in sales from Citradelic IPA to lean on as the top-selling new craft brand (and on pace to be one of the biggest craft debuts ever) because their Ranger and Slow Ride IPAs are both down. Luckily, their Glutiny Pale and Golden ales are both among those 18 new brands that are over $1 million in sales.

All this, combined with New Belgium’s increase in distribution this spring and summer into states like Connecticut, New Jersey and New York, has certainly helped, too.

The biggest benefit for all these breweries is the classic “location, location, location.” These new brands are well liked by drinkers, otherwise they wouldn’t be selling so much or winning blind taste contests, but it’s hard to ignore that you can find these beers across the spectrum of supermarkets, convenience stores, Wal-Mart and more, which helps to drive those impressive sales and is a big reason why 51 percent of craft growth is from new brands.

With the base of craft beer drinkers ever expanding – and the expectation of finding something new and exciting that comes with that – there’s a constant need to innovate and create. It’s a good thing these big breweries are up for the challenge, using their own research and development staff to stay on top of trends as best they can and offer these new tastes to fans. Or, at least, trying to create the next one.

When we enter the beer aisle, we’re now bombarded with a wild collection of choice unlike ever before. In our hunt for what’s new, the breweries that we “grew up” with are trying their best to make sure we don’t forget about them, too.

Bryan Roth
“Don’t drink to get drunk. Drink to enjoy life.” — Jack Kerouac

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The ever insightful @BryanDRoth provide more insight into the trends that help quench our thirst!
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Let’s Talk Doom, Gloom and Craft Beer Bubbles

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popping bubble

In an industry with such monumental growth in recent years, it’s no wonder people are asking all sorts of questions these days. Interest for beer is at an all-time high, which means curiosity among enthusiasts is right there to match.

Lately, however, if people aren’t asking “what’s the next IPA?” it’s been something along the lines of “when do you think this bubble will burst?” The fate of beer is a popular armchair quarterback activity, often based on ideas of vanity stats like the number of breweries in the country instead of where things stand culturally and economically.

In 2011, there was fear of a bursting bubble because 2010 offered record growth for craft beer. Then again in 2012. And 2013. Of course in 2014. Definitely in 2015. And the song plays on.

Sometimes I feel this discussion is almost as ubiquitous as putting beer into cans.

At the core of each of those news stories – and most conversations I’ve had on the topic – is that people see the fast growth in overall number of US breweries, try to translate what that number means to them personally and assign a judgment based on their expectations and experiences, assuming things must be heading in a bad direction.

But what if Sam Calagione’s “bloodbath” of fallen craft brewers isn’t coming? That was a prediction made two years ago, after all.

Instead, what we’ve seen over the last five years is an influx of smartly created businesses increasing sales andprices – all the while met by demand.

My first thought when discussing a “bubble” isn’t necessarily an economic take, but a psychological one. The people who are often crying wolf on the impending crisis are typically media covering the industry. Not intense, card carrying Beer Nerds such as myself, but a traditional reporter with an average knowledge of beer who may care to ask questions about a bubble when local brewery numbers creep upward, like these examples for Los Angeles or Minneapolis-Saint Paul.

Even when beer enthusiasts do ask about bubbles, it comes from our unique point of view, trying to combine what we know and see about our local and regional market with context of the national scene to create some mental conglomeration of impending doom.

On a whole, unfamiliar things make us more afraid than familiar ones, especially things that have been mythologized as “scary.” Discussions of past bubbles – whether the tech or metal or beer industries – adds to a mounting collection of references that tell us we should be wary weary when something grows fast. On top of that, add ongoing coverage asking about a bubble and why we should be worried and we begin to inch toward instructional fear acquisition, a social cost of fear, whether rational or not.

The process of layering public perception, often seen through continuous coverage or mention of our beer bubble, on top of mirroring the fear of others can lead to irrationality, hardly an uncommon attributefor humans in all aspects of life.

In an unrelated field, perhaps we can take a cue from Indiana University telecommunications professor Andrew Weaver: “When you leave it up someone’s imagination, we can conjure things that can frighten us much better or effectively than what most filmmakers can invent and put onscreen.”

The most common area from which people base their fear of a beer bubble comes from the rising number of breweries, but a vanity stat doesn’t tell the whole story. If we were to have a thousand regional breweries making 50,000 barrels a year coming online, that would most certainly sound like a problem. But it’s commonly the exact opposite.

According to estimates by the National Beer Wholesalers Association (NBWA), the beer industry added about 700 new breweries in 2015, which aligns with the Brewers Association’s estimate of about two breweries opening each day. As the NBWA’s Lester Jones points out, “starting small is the name of the game.”

Brewery counts by size 2015_Page_1

Most breweries entering the marketplace these days are small. “Nano” isn’t just a descriptive word for a brewery’s size, but it’s a trend in the industry.

From 2007 to 2015, the average barrel production for microbreweries (less than 15,000 barrels a year and selling at least 75 percent off-site) declined from 2,290 to 1,638 barrels, according to Brewers Association estimates. That can be because of factors like some breweries scaling up and leaving the “microbrewery” label behind, but is mostly driven by the entrance of small businesses.

Not only does staying small offer greater potential for business success based on scale and margins, but it’s simply a return to normalcy for America’s brewing industry. The neighborhood breweries of the 19th century have returned, offering intimacy and authenticityat a time when expectations among the beer drinking public are changing, especially craft beer lovers.

“Fears about the number of breweries are often overblown because people haven’t wrapped their head around what the new brewery business model really is for these businesses,” Brewers Association economist Bart Watson recently mentioned on the Business of Craft Beer podcast.

Small is increasingly playing a bigger role in beer. In the same conversation, Watson mentioned the contrast between craft brewery growth 20 years ago versus today. Back then, brewery geography was focused on places like college towns and urban areas. Now, with a reported 78 percent of drinking-age adults living within 10 miles of a brewery, those locations have diversified.

“You don’t get a stat like that unless you have breweries in the vast majority of communities around the country,” Watson said. Given that the popular business model of focusing on staying small and local has taken hold, “that’s something that a neighborhood in a city or small town can support,” he added.

One of the biggest differences between the beer industry’s “Shakeout” of 20 years ago and today is demand.

Overall, the rise in number of craft breweries simply parallels the increase of “craft” goods and services in other industries. This doesn’t just apply to the United States, but acts as a global movement as well. In one study looking at 118 countries, findings showed that “most regions and markets worldwide last year saw consumers trading up to higher value products across a wide range of categories.” There’s a rise of craft producers everywhere.

Most important, people are willing and able to pay for the increased amount of beer available in the marketplace. The high-end segment of beer – crafts and imports that cost more than $30 a case – is growing steadily, according to the National Beer Wholesalers Association. Wages may need to grow a little faster, but overall consumer spending is healthy.

In terms of Brewers Association-defined “craft” beer, volume and dollar sales are up. Breweries charging $20 for a four-pack of New England IPA are selling out on a daily basis. While some beer is most certainly sitting on store shelves longer than before – an unfortunate side effect of the power and volume of choice – stale beer we find at our local bottle shop isn’t necessarily indicative of national trends.

Yet, at least.

Just remember, we’ve been sounding this alarm for some time. Even in 1994, when Portland, Maine was getting ready to open its fifth brewery, the end was nigh.

With any business system, there are always economic aspects to consider and worry over, but even though we only have to look back 20 years to see a busted bubble in the beer industry, we shouldn’t start pounding the alarm just yet. It’s not all doom and gloom. It’s not all threatening. It’s actually kind of exciting.

Bryan Roth
“Don’t drink to get drunk. Drink to enjoy life.” — Jack Kerouac

Header image via bioedge.org

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66 days ago
Started my week with a bubbling, thought-provoking article from @BryanDRoth
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The Perfect Tap List as Determined by Beer Nerds

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beer taps

Over on VinePair, writer Will Gordon recently shared an interesting game/exercise: creating “16 Perfect Taps” at the hypothetical bar of your dreams. It gained some traction among beer enthusiasts across social media as drinkers compiled their own lists picking out their favorite ales and lagers to take up each tap.

I thought an interesting twist might be to make the process a little more objective, from my point of view, by using the subjective ratings provided by beer lovers across the world.

Taking Will’s outline from his post, which breaks the tap list down into 16 categories, I sourced choices from four rating sites: RateBeer, Beer Advocate, BeerGraphs and Untappd. Each website offers its own proprietary ranking system, whether a formula devised by RateBeer and Beer Advocate or the “Beers Over Replacement” of BeerGraphs. Untappd, of course, has the bottle cap rating system.

Using that base, I picked the top-ranked beers from each site with the caveat that choices from RateBeer or BeerAdvocate needed to have at least 100 rankings. I have no interest in including a beer that is very highly rated, but has only been “checked in” a dozen times.

Let’s take a look at what we’ll be drinking…

Tap 1, House IPA

  • RateBeer: Tree House Julius
  • BeerAdvocate: Tree House Julius
  • BeerGraphs: Trillium Double Dry Hopped Congress Street IPA
  • Untappd: Tree House Julius

Tap 2, House Pale Ale

  • RateBeer: Three Floyds Zombie Dust
  • BeerAdvocate: Three Floyds Zombie Dust
  • BeerGraphs: Lagunitas Born Yesterday
  • Untappd: Toppling Goliath pseudoSue

Tap 3, House Saison

  • RateBeer: Hill Farmstead Ann
  • BeerAdvocate: Hill Farmstead Ann
  • BeerGraphs: Hill Farmstead Arthur
  • Untappd: Sante Adairius Rustic Ales West Ashley

Tap 4, House Cheapie*

  • RateBeer: Stone Imperial Russian Stout
  • BeerAdvocate: Founders Breakfast Stout
  • BeerGraphs: Alpine Nelson
  • Untappd: N/A

*A note about the “cheapie” category, which is supposed to represent cost efficient choices. Instead of going that road, I looked at each listing and found the highest ranked, widely available beer, in that order. It isn’t “cheap,” in terms of cost, but it is “cheap” in terms of time and effort to find. It also speaks to these kinds of ranking systems when these are the beers that fill that qualification. Of note: Untappd did not have such a beer in its top-ranked list, which only offers one page of 36 beers.

Tap 5, House Pilsner*

  • RateBeer: Heater Allen Pils
  • Beer Advocate: The Bruery Humulus Lager (American Double/Imperial Pilsner)
  • BeerGraphs: Hertog Jan Pilsener
  • Untappd: Other Half Grits ‘n’ Greens (American – Other)

*Each site had different categorizations for pilsner, including the style specific to countries of origin. Where possible, I focused on American pilsner, but added the site category for Beer Advocate and Untappd.

Tap 6, House Porter

  • RateBeer: Hill Farmstead Everett
  • BeerAdvocate: Funky Buddha Morning Wood
  • BeerGraphs: Funky Buddha Last Snow
  • Untappd: Funky Buddha Last Snow

Tap 7, House Blue Moon Alternative

  • RateBeer: Three Floyds Gumballhead
  • BeerAdvocate: Three Floyds Gumballhead
  • BeerGraphs: Three Floyds Gumballhead
  • Untappd: Perennial Artisan Ales Funky Wit Apricot

Tap 8, House Session Beer*

  • RateBeer: Hill Farmstead Walden
  • BeerAdvocate: Alpine Hoppy Birthday
  • BeerGraphs: Maine Beer 2
  • Untappd: Lawson’s Finest Liquids Super Session #2

*Let’s be honest. Considering the popularity and proliferation of IPAs, of course these picks would be session IPAs.

Tap 9, Rotating IPA*

  • RateBeer: Tree House Alter Ego
  • BeerAdvocate: The Alchemist Focal Banger
  • BeerGraphs: Trillium Hundred Thousand Trillion
  • Untappd: The Alchemist Focal Banger

*Each of these picks were the second-highest ranked IPA on each list.

Tap 10, Rotating IPA*

  • RateBeer: Hill Farmstead Susan
  • BeerAdvocate: Tree House Green
  • BeerGraphs: Tree House Curiosity Twenty Three
  • Untappd: Trillium Double Dry Hopped Congress Street

*Each of these picks were the third-highest ranked IPA on each list.

Tap 11, Rotating Local (N/A)

If you’re interested in local options for all 50 states, I recommend visiting each ranking site’s webpage for those options.

Tap 12, Rotating Lager*

RateBeer: Great Lakes Eliot Ness (Amber/Vienna)
BeerAdvocate: Jack’s Abby Hoponius Union
BeerGraphs: Carton Brewing Sit Down Son
Untappd: Jack’s Abby Triple Dry Hopped Hoponius Union (IPL)

*Like pilsner, each site had different categorizations for lager.

Tap 13, Rotating Legend

(N/A – for best “heritage” brands, I suggest checking out this listing and analysis)

Tap 14, Rotating Wild Card*

  • RateBeer: AleSmith IPA
  • BeerAdvocate: New England Brewing Fuzzy Baby Ducks IPA
  • BeerGraphs: Other Half Street Green
  • Untappd: Tree House Alter Ego

*The first wild card tap is just the fourth-highest ranked IPA. Because IPA, duh.

Tap 15, Rotating Wild Card*

  • RateBeer: Belgian Quad
  • BeerAdvocate: Imperial Stout
  • BeerGraphs: American Pale Ale (but really IPA)
  • Untappd: Imperial Stout

*Instead of a specific beer, this rotating tap reflects exactly what a rotation should be. I took the top-ranked style from each site to reflect what that kind of style would appear to be in my make believe bar. Westy 12 has long stood atop RateBeer’s rankings and Zombie Dust kills on BeerGraphs. All stouts all the time on Beer Advocate and especially Untappd, thanks to Bourbon County Brand Stout and all its variants.

Tap 16, Rotating Craft Superstar*

  • RateBeer: AleSmith
  • BeerAdvocate: Founders
  • BeerGraphs: Goose Island
  • Untappd: Goose Island

*Like the above wild card option, I picked the most prevalent, easily found brewery on each list. Untappd is skewed because of BCBS.

What does this all mean?

It all reflects an easily expected outcome, showing that what’s new is what’s powerful. Tree House and Trillium seem to be the darlings of the beer world at the moment, thanks to their IPAs, both regular and of the New England variety. Hill Farmstead isn’t going anywhere thanks to the hype and power the brewery wields over drinkers and ratings alike.

If anything, looking at this full list of beers makes me kind of sad, although not surprised, at the repetition of brands and what they represent. It feels like a whole lot of hegemony here, but that’s how things go in consumer driven industries.

What say you, dutiful reader?

Bryan Roth
“Don’t drink to get drunk. Drink to enjoy life.” — Jack Kerouac

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106 days ago
And thanks to @BryanDRoth I'm now *very* thirsty!
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What We Mean When We Talk About the ‘Death’ of Flagship Beers

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Not once, but twice last week I read about a presumptive sweeping movement in the beer industry: the death of the flagship brand.

First, it was Chelsie over at Stouts and Stilettos, followed by Derek at Bear Flavored. Two different takes and perspectives on the cultural rejection of the notion that breweries, as a business, might have One Beer to Rule Them All.

Is there truth to this? Maybe a little, but no more than what we could glean from when Andy Crouch wrote about this same topic in 2012 :

So in the end of an era for some pioneer brands, where consumers appear ready to fully embrace their long-developing beer brand promiscuity, the first era of the flagship is over. The ultimate result of the evolving craft beer consumer’s fickle palate is the end of relations with these former beaus, only to be replaced with a new, younger and hipper string of beer relations.

Let’s for a moment assume we’ve spent the last four years witnessing the Death of the Flagship. The most important point we should talk about is addressing the audience for which “flagship” matters.

I am the 1 percent. If you’re reading this post, chances are you’re the 1 percent, too. We are the ultimate minority, the beer enthusiast who thrives on promiscuity and badges on Untappd. We want to learn about new beers from new breweries to fill our portfolio of experiences, often at the risk of ignoring heritage brands or simply buying beer in “bulk,” opting for single servings instead of six-packs.

There is nothing wrong with that. However, there is still 99 percent of the beer drinking public out there for which that behavior is not the norm.

Then again, this topic is wildly complicated. What we need to be asking, then, is what do the numbers show? Are flagships dying? Maybe, but not like you think.

Addressing Current Flagships

Let’s be clear: breweries across the country have beers that not only are their flagships, but will continue to be the driving force for their overall business.

  • Allagash White is 80 percent of Allagash’s volume.
  • All Day IPA, which debuted in 2012 and accounted for 25 percent of Founders volume one year later, is more than 50 percent of volume now. The brand grew 175 percent in 2015.
  • Goose Island IPA grew more than 250 percent last year and became a $19 million brand.
  • Lagunitas IPA, which won’t stop growing, is the top-selling IPA in the country.
  • New Holland, which refocused its attention on its home Michigan market last year, saw jumps in its top performing brands Dragon’s Milk (+48 percent) and Mad Hatter (+20 percent) in 2015.
  • Bell’s, despite new brands like Oatsmobile and regular specialty releases, still relies on two beers for 79 percent of its volume.

bells sales breakdown

I could go on.

Flagship beers, as a staple and driving force, are not going anywhere. Just ask these guys. For businesses like Allagash, highlighted belowby Good Beer Hunting, one beer allows brewers to play and create the one-off Whales beer enthusiasts crave.

Many know them for their volume-leading witbier, and it’s the engine that powers the vehicle. But there’s also a robust, thriving, and innovative barrel and wild ale program that continues to churn out new and interesting beers. I ask Guarracino about the commitment to a program that’s surely a burden to maintain, from the ingredients to the time and space required for aging, the lower yields, and just generally so much work for so little beer, relatively speaking. “One percent of sales, 100% of soul,” he says.

Flailing Flagships

But even as iconic brands continue to sell, that doesn’t mean all is fine.

Per IRI, 15 of the top 30 craft brands showed sales decline in the first half of 2016, including names we all recognize:

  • Sierra Nevada Pale Ale
  • New Belgium Fat Tire
  • Samuel Adams Boston Lager

Seeing these brands in this context may not come as a surprise, especially in the case of Sam Adams, which has been facing challenges to its sales and parent company Boston Beer’s identity for a couple years. According to Brewbound, Boston Lager sold more than $43 million in multi-outlet (grocery, Wal Mart, drug, etc.) sales in the first half of 2014. During the same time frame in 2016, it’s made $37.5 million.

Overall, six of the declining 15 brands have seen declines of 10 percent or more.

The New Flagship

You can’t address the idea of the Death of the Flagship without considering the biggest movement of the craft beer industry. While individual breweries may be more reliant on tap variety these days, that may also be due to the fact that as consumers, we’ve slowly moved to embrace the idea of a cultural flagship. SPOILER ALERT: it’s the IPA.

Of the top-15 selling new craft brands through May 1, eight were IPA and one was a hop-forward pale ale. This comes on the heels of 2015, when nine of the 10 top-selling craft brands were IPA.

Looking at the cross section of this trend with the breweries that are leading the charge of today’s top-sellers show how this need for hopped up beers impacts the companies who are suffering from declines in flagships once wildly popular. They’re just replacing what people may consider their “old” flagships with new ones.

Last year, Sierra Nevada (Hop Hunter and Nooner), New Belgium (Slow Ride) and Sam Adams (Rebel Rouser and Rebel Rider) were all responsible for some of the best-selling new brands.

Through that May 1 time frame this year, Sierra Nevada (Otra Vez), New Belgium (Citradelic and Glutiny) and Sam Adams (Rebel Grapefruit, Nitro Coffee Stout, Nitro White Ale and Nitro IPA) were again among the top new brands. A mix of IPAs and current trends (gose and nitro) far from Pale Ale, Fat Tire and Boston Lager, brands that continue to lead the charge, but don’t get as much attention than what’s shiny and new, perhaps.

Between 2010 and 2015, New Belgium and Sam Adams had three of the six best-selling new releases, all IPA. (Sierra Nevada’s Hop Hunter was 2015’s best if you discount Coney Island Hard Root Beer as a flavored malt beverage and not beer) This year’s top-selling brand through May 1: New Belgium’s Citradelic Tangerine IPA.

Two points of information worth noting here:

  1. The reason these breweries are repeating are because of size (they can produce a lot) and scope (they distribute to a lot of places). So while people obviously really like these products, their excellent performance is aided by wide availability.
  2. The year-to-year need for innovation and offering something new highlights how necessary it can be for these businesses to remain relevant at a time when variety and finding new experiences are at a premium.

“It’s a crowded marketplace,” Alarmist Brewing’s Gary Gulley said on a recent Good Beer Hunting podcast. “You need to evolve who you are and what you’re doing.”

Ten minutes later in the conversation, GBH host Michael Kiser added to the thought.

“If I’m a big brewery and I need to keep things moving, which is what larger companies have to do,” he said, “coming out with something that’s on trend, at a time when people want it, that’s going to soak up in the market, is the perfect place to be for larger brewery.”

All this emphasizes the reality of how and why the idea of a flagship may be waning. “New” is necessary and that means changes for what’s most popular on a yearly basis. Look at how the top-selling styles have adjusted in recent years with extra emphasis on this year’s rankings, as reported by IRI:

2007 2011 2014 2016
1 Pale Ale IPA IPA IPA
2 Seasonal Pale Ale Seasonal Seasonal
3 Amber Amber Pale Ale Variety
4 Amber Lager Amber Lager Variety Wheat
5 Wheat Wheat Amber Pale Ale

In 2016, IPA is set to have nearly a *third* of craft dollar sales in supermarkets and similar stores, followed by two styles that are defined by rotational flavors.

Filling Our Portfolio

One avenue from which to view the Death of Flagship is the Rise of Variety, something I’ve written about before and more recently pointed out in this post about Millennials, beer’s most pivotal demographic.

In IRI’s tracking of supermarket beer sales through May 1, the company noted several year-to-year gains in single packaged bottles. Twenty-two ounce bombers are up 6.8 percent, single 11 or 12-ounce bottles are up 22 percent and single 16 to 17 ounce bottles are up 67.6 percent in 2016. But also think about the bottle shops you visit, where setting out individual 12-ounce bottles or cans is the norm and grocery stores which have made the “mix a six” selection common.

Also, consider the buying behavior of Millennial beer drinkers:


And the fact craft beer drinkers consume a variety of brands:

other beer craft beer drinkers drink

According to Nielsen, the average number of alcohol drink brands in a craft beer drinker’s portfolio – across all kinds of alcohol – is 24, almost double the national average of 15. Interests range widely and for those who seek out unique flavor experiences, it only makes sense that these drinkers would be promiscuous in their selection of booze.

RIP Flagships?

Is there a definitive answer to this question? Are flagships dying? Or is it just our mentality toward them?

Probably a little of both.

Even as sales decline for classic brands, former flagships are just being replaced by *new* flagships or rotational ones. The variety that we seek and crave is matched by the innovation and creativity of the industry’s brewers, after all. Flagships act as a point of reference for a business. But when a diverse collection of brands is necessary and styles become more important, it makes sense all this would happen.

Or maybe it’s simply because we have thousands of options in front of us when we walk down the beer aisle and brand switching happens because it can.

I don’t think there’s a debate to be had about whether we need to write a eulogy for the idea of flagship beers – there’s too much proof that they not only exist but are pivotal for many breweries – but the psychology and expectation around such a thing has certainly changed. Our old flagships – the beers we personally choose to enjoy – are just becoming new ones. Life, death, rebirth.

(Note: Want to learn more about problems flagship beers face? Read my story “Life and Death of a Beer” in the latest issue of All About Beer magazine.)

Bryan Roth
“Don’t drink to get drunk. Drink to enjoy life.” — Jack Kerouac

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122 days ago
The flagship is dead! Long live the flagship! More enlightening insights from @BryanDRoth
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Don’t Count Out the Reinheitsgebot! German Hops Find Fruit Flavor

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Likely by the growing presence in bottle shops and grocery stores, I’d venture a guess that even a casual beer fan has realized the influx of fruited IPAs in recent months. This time of year is always a boon to seasonal brand changes that showcase beers perfect for warmer months, with flavors often accompanied by the sweetness of grapefruit, orange and others.

But increasingly, brewers don’t have to solely rely on natural or artificial flavorings to boost the profile of their creation. Thanks to an evolution of hop varieties, all these fruity flavors can now be imparted in a beer without additional help – and consumers obviously appreciate the shift.

Sorting through what’s available in America, it makes sense that the U.S. is an epicenter of this change, especially given how American palates have shifted with expectation to beer and other alcohols.

But during my first day at this year’s Craft Brewers Conference (CBC), I found another, perhaps unexpected, country embracing this change.

Among the first events at CBC was a hospitality suite hosted by the German and Hallertau Hop Growers Association, which shared seven beers made with different German hop varieties, including Mandarina Bavaria, Hallertau Blanc, Huell Melon and, most important, two new varieties known as Ariana and Calista. A highlight of the event was a lineup of about a dozen different parcels of German-grown hop cones, spread out across two tables, open for visitors to walk up, crush in their hands and experience first-hand the aromatic qualities of each.


At one end, where hardly anyone spent any time, were familiar names like Nugget, Opal, Tettnang and plain old Hallertau. “Smells like a German tradition,” an attendee next to me said as we worked our way down the line.

But at the other end of the lineup, faces lit up and conversations were had with grand hand gestures and deep descriptors hitting on specific flavors. This is where the five signature hops mentioned above resided. This is also where just about every person spent their time while sampling hops.

Peach, strawberry, melon, passion fruit, apricot, honey. All descriptors shared by passersby. No coincidence, said German Hop Growers’ Otmar Weingarten.

FullSizeRender (1)

“Our German growers can’t stand only on one leg,” he said, referencing the search for hops that move beyond basic bitterness or spicy notes. “We have to include flavor and aroma.”


Specifically, Otmar mentioned the growing German interest and influence from American craft beer and what that’s doing to drinkers and businesses in Germany. The lineup of beers, created by Eric Toft, head brewmaster and plant manager in the Private Landbrauerei Schönram in Bavaria, reflected that sentiment, even including a triple IPA.


While Ariana and Calista aren’t yet available in the U.S., they may be eventually, much like the slow appearance in recent years of the other three favorited hops from the event, Mandarina Bavaria, Hallertau Blanc, Huell Melon. During the hop event, a brewer from Chicago’s Revolution Brewing gushed about a pale ale being released this week relying heavily on Mandarina hops.

For as much change we’ve seen in American hops and what that means for breweries and drinkers, it’s exciting to see the impact extend beyond the boundaries of the East and West coasts.


Bryan Roth
“Don’t drink to get drunk. Drink to enjoy life.” — Jack Kerouac

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175 days ago
Exciting times to be a hophead! Thanks to @BryanDRoth for suffering through the event so we don't have to.
North Carolina USA
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